More winners again last week, after the international football break we get going again with some interesting fixtures and some equally interesting football betting tips from Game of Odds blogger and resident tipster, Cookie.
Manchester City v Tottenham
This matchup has recently brought us a lot of goals, 30 goals in the last 6, and should make for an interesting early kick off for the Premier League. The goals have been a little one-sided also with City scoring 22 of these 30. Throw into the mix that Spurs have injury questions over keeper Lloris and top scorer Chadli and you wonder if this could be another tough game for the men from North London.
I expect City to win this, and win it well. Realistically I wouldn’t really want to put up a 1/2 shot, but on my ratings I would make them closer a 1/3 shot, so there is value there, but that’s no fun. So we must look towards some other markets for further value.
£500 Man City -1 – 23/20
£500 Half-Time/Full-Time – Man City/Man City 6/5
Arsenal v Hull
This is a trickier fixture than you might expect for Arsenal. I think that Hull are probably a little better than most give them credit for, and this is also exactly the kind of game Wenger will rest people as they have an away trip to Anderlecht on Wednesday in a Champions League match they can ill afford to lose. Truth be known Arsenal should be able to rest players in each fixture and feel confident enough in winning. Arsenal’s injury list is long, with Giroud, Debuchy, Sanogo, Ozil, Ramsey and the suspended Chambers all certain to miss out; Arsenal do however have Walcott back in training but he won’t be match fit and there will also be questions about Rosicky’s fitness. Hull go without Snodgrass and McGregor and have a question over Elmohamady.
Arsenal should win, but I couldn’t be interested for one moment in backing them at 2/5. I’m also not really sure there is much value to be found in this game, so I won’t go looking too hard for it.
Burnley v West Ham
It’s fair to say it’s been a tough start to the season for Burnley, and if there is to be light at the end of the tunnel they will need to start winning games like these. West Ham and Burnely have had massively differing starts with Burnely struggling for goals with just 3 in their opening 7 fixtures, and a shocking league low shot conversion rate of just 5%. West Ham have won three of their first seven Premier League games of 2014-15; they won just three of their opening 20 Premier League matches last season; scoring 6 set-piece goals along the way, more than any other side.
I’d like to see Burnley get there season kicked off here, and if they don’t get going soon they could find themselves cut adrift very early, but it’s not the easiest outcome to envisage here. There is probably a touch of value in West Ham at 7/4, so I would suggest a small play there.
£800 West Ham – 13/8
Crystal Palace v Chelsea
This fixture last season ended in disaster for Chelsea and was probably one of the major games that decided both Palace’s and Chelsea’s fate with Chelsea narrowly missing out on the title and Palace securing another season in the top flight. Since Mourinho returned to Chelsea they have kept the most clean sheets in the Premier League and are now starting to outscore any other team. Palace will be without Scott Dann and a doubt over Mariappa whilst Chelsea go without Ramires and a doubt over Schurrle.
Palace are not a roll over a die side, and to make Chelsea a 4/9 shot there isn’t anything I would suggest any sort of investment in, I would make a fair price on Chelsea at about a 10/11 shot; so for this reason a play on Palace Double chance and perhaps a small play on the unders.
£800 Crystal Palace +1 – 15/8 (slightly better price than the 9/5 double chance for the same bet)
£800 Under 2.5 Goals - Evs
Everton v Aston Villa
Over the past 11 years Everton have only lost this fixture once, but with only 3 wins they can’t really consider themselves getting the upper hand too much either. Villa’s doggedness and work rate has currently got them as high as 10th in the league, something that any Villa fan would bite your hand off for at the end of the season, but delve a little deeper and you will learn that Villa have managed only 10 shots on target in their seven premier league games so far (less than Aguero who’s had 12 or Costa who’s had 16 on their own). Perhaps now there is a little bit of value in Villa for relegation at 6/1 with Ladbrokes?
I don’t expect that Everton slip up here, but at 4/7 for an Everton team far from firing on all cylinders themselves, I would have to pass. Another no bet match.
Newcastle v Leicester
Two contrasting starts to the season here, with the expected to struggle Leicester thriving in the premier league and Newcastle in borderline turmoil and with a manager that’s been facing the sack for about 2 seasons now in Alan Pardew. Of the 17 ever-present Premier League sides in 2014, Newcastle have collected the fewest wins (5) and fewest points (20), scored the fewest goals (21) and conceded the most goals (49).
With those stats in mind, there can only really be one outcome, and that’s a Newcastle win. That may sound crazy, but it’s got to the point now that Newcastle are 6/5 at home to a side that were a league below them last season. I’m not saying it’s a banker, but at 6/5 its value, and that’s all we’re looking for here.
£1000 Newcastle – 6/5
£650 Both Teams To Score – Yes – 8/13
£500 First Goalscorer – Papiss Cisse – 5/1
Southampton v Sunderland
Southampton, the team that were set to struggle at the start of the season, have won more Premier League points in 2014 (42) than both Everton (41) and Manchester United (41). In Graziano Pelle they seem to have found an excellent source of goals, and will be more than happy with their start to the season. Sunderland are this season draw specialists, and other than a loss to QPR would have been unbeaten this season albeit only 1 win so far. Southampton will be without Yoshida, Rodriguez, Ward-Prowse and possibly Gallagher; whilst Sunderland are without Alvarez, Giaccherini and Coates.
Prices are about right on this, but I do see goals in this game, so we will have a play on the overs, and a bit of Southampton -1
£500 Soutampton -1 – 7/5
£800 Over 2.5 Goals – 10/11
£400 Over 3.5 Goals – 5/2
£200 Over 4.5 Goals – 11/2
QPR v Liverpool
There are rumours going round that if ‘Arry loses this one then his days are numbered at QPR, good job they’re only playing Liverpool then! QPR are poor, and realistically I don’t see that anyone is going to be able to come in and keep them up, they already have too big a squad to just keep bringing in more players in the new year, and the quality is just not there. The collection of has-beens is just embarrassing and QPR will need a major overhaul when relegated.
QPR are trash, but Liverpool are far from playing as well as the Liverpool of last season. If anyones value here it’s probably QPR at 5/1, but only due to Liverpool inconsistency than anything else. But I’m not wasting a penny even chasing potential value on this QPR side.
Stoke v Swansea
Swansea have hit a little bit of a flat spot after their excellent opening to the season, having draw 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 fixtures; in fairness it was always going to be hard for them to maintain that kind of start, but perhaps some cracks are beginning to show for the boys from South Wales. Stoke are marginally the better team on my ratings, and with home advantage probably rightly go into this game as favourites. Stoke go without Peter Odemwingie and have doubts over Arnautovic, Moses, Diouf and Cameron; Swansea go without the injured Amat and Britton and the suspended Shelvey.
I like Swansea and have backed them on the handicap for this season, but I fear that the wheels have come off a little early for them, and they haven’t of late been performing as well as I would like, and at 6/4 there is probably a bit of value here to be had on Stoke.
£400 Stoke – 6/4
£500 Half Time – Stoke – 21/10
West Brom v Man U
West Brom have been an exciting team to watch this season, I like a lot of things about the club, and they are starting to fulfil some of the promise they have showed over the past couple of seasons (I’m still saddened that Berahino isn’t getting a look in for England Seniors). United are still going for the “we’re going to score more than you” approach; and in fairness in their last 2 games they have, but I still expect this to be a tough test, and at 4/1 can Baggies really be overlooked?
To answer the previous question, no, they should be overlooked at 4/1. United have won their last 2 games but remain unconvincing and until I see a lot more from them I couldn’t have them as a 8/11 shot away from home. I would make Baggies about a 6/4 shot, so this is the main play of the weekend.
£500 West Brom – 4/1
£600 West Brom Half Time – 7/2
£550 West Brom or Draw Double Chance – 11/10
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